When Donald Trump was sworn in as President of the United States in January 2025, he faced a world very different from the one U.S. Presidents faced at the turn of the century. As a nation, we were being poked and prodded by both friends and potential foes. Whatever benefits we gained by winning the Cold War and being the only superpower were gone.
In 2025, the War in Ukraine was entering its third year, and the U.S. was providing the preponderance of military aid and intelligence. Most NATO nations were still spending less than the minimum 2% of GDP.
Intelligence showed the new president that Iran was getting closer and closer to developing a deliverable nuclear weapon. It had resisted any attempts at negotiation and continued to build a huge stockpile of short- and long-range ballistic missiles for “self-defense.”
As the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism, Iran had become bolder. Its leaders believed they were protected by their missile inventory, their purchases of Russian and Chinese weapons, and had political support from the Axis of Resistance – Russia, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and the Democratic Republic of Korea (North Korea).
Hezbollah was flexing its muscles and threatening to unleash a barrage of missiles at Israel. At the behest of its leaders, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was actively trying to overthrow governments in North Africa, the Middle East, and on the Arabian Peninsula.
For example, in Libya, the IRGC was attempting to create a theocratic state based on Iran’s model and becoming more aggressive in Yemen, Eritrea, and Ethiopia. Hamas had just attacked Israel on October 7th, 2023, and the Iranian-backed Houthis began lobbing missiles at Israel and ships transiting the Gulf of Aden.
Venezuela was cozying up to the People’s Republic of China and, despite sanctions, was selling them oil. Chinese and Iranian operatives joined the Cubans to ensure Maduro remained in power. For Cuba, Venezuela was a financial and oil lifeline.
In Asia, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was becoming more and more aggressive with regular violations of Taiwanese and Japanese airspace, exercises conducted in international waters close to Japan and Taiwan. Xi Jinping stated that he will reunite Taiwan with the PRC in his lifetime. The PRC’s military build-up had become the pacing threat driving war planning in the Pentagon.
When President Trump looked at Iran’s proclaimed Axis of Resistance, three of its members controlled 33.52% of the world’s known oil reserves. Iran: 17.17%; Russia: 4.53%; Venezuela: 17.17%. (source - https://www.worldometers.info/oil/oil-reserves-by-country/). For the U.S., which holds 4.74% of the world’s oil, this concentration posed a national security risk to the U.S. and our allies.
Bottom line, the world had changed dramatically since the turn of the century. The peace dividend hadn’t delivered much in the way of an ROI.
What changed?
The government of Syria fell in December 2024, and Assad, who had been propped up by Iranian and Russian support, took up residence in Moscow. Hezbollah’s overland supply line from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon was cut.
Seeing an opportunity, the IDF took out most of Hezbollah’s leadership and launched an air and land campaign that decimated Hezbollah. As part of the agreement brokered by the U.S., the Lebanese government agreed to help disarm Hezbollah.
In Gaza, decimated by the Israeli response to the October 7th attack, Hamas is a shadow of its former self, and it is now up to the Arab world to come up with a uniquely Arab solution. Time will tell if they can, but their first goal, along with the Israelis, is to emasculate Hamas and prevent it from controlling Gaza.
In Ukraine, little has changed on the ground. The Red Army hasn’t been able to defeat the Ukrainians, and Russia is becoming more and more isolated. Putin still launches hordes of drones and missiles in the hopes of eroding Ukraine’s will to fight. Most don’t reach their targets, and Ukraine continues to hold its own. Putin’s demands for peace are unreasonable to everyone except his supporters, so the war drags on.
Cracks in the Russian economy are beginning to show. By March 2026, the Russian Army had suffered 1.2 million+ casualties. How long can Russia sustain losing 7,000 – 7,500 men/week? Many Western analysts believe Putin is running out of time, manpower, and money, and the coming spring offensive may be the Red Army’s last gasp.
But what is different is that now Europe is engaged. Defense spending by NATO nations is up, thanks to pressure from the Trump White House and a realization that Putin’s Russia is an existential threat. European countries are taking over the financial burden of supplying arms to Ukraine and have begun seizing Russian shadow tankers carrying oil, in violation of U.N. sanctions, to Putin’s customers.
Apparently, Iranian leaders didn’t believe Trump when he said that they had 60 days to make a deal to end their nuclear program. With no deal in sight, on day 61 – June 13th, 2025, Israel attacked. In 12 days, they decimated the Iranian air defense system and attacked above-ground nuclear weapon production sites, missile production factories, and air defense sites.
Bombs from U.S. Air Force B-2s destroyed the hardened underground facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. While no one knows for sure how much damage was caused, few doubt they were severely damaged. Again, the U.S. offered to negotiate a deal, and the Iranians stalled, using time to attempt to build more missiles and rebuild their defenses.
On January 3rd, 2026, the U.S. shocked the world when it arrested President Maduro of Venezuela. The world held its breath, expecting oil prices to skyrocket. They didn’t. Slowly, but surely, the Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez is moving toward reform, knowing that if she doesn’t, the U.S. might act.
In Havana, Maduro’s arrest had a huge impact. The Castros and their cronies have been looting the country for decades and have lost their last benefactor. First it was Russia, then it was Venezuela.
The Cuban infrastructure is in tatters because the Castros didn’t invest in it. Its people are struggling with food and electrical shortages, and the vaunted Cuban medical system has fallen on hard times. The best way to describe the Communist regime is “dead regime walking.”
How long will the Castros hold out? No one knows. Where could they go and enjoy the billions taken from their fellow citizens? That’s an interesting discussion well beyond the scope of this article.
Maduro’s arrest was just another Axis of Resistance chess piece taken off the board. Again, with the Iranian’s stalling, Presidents Trump and Netanyahu unleashed hell on the Iranian regime on February 28th, 2026, with Operation Epic Fury.
Oil traders, fearing that the world would be cut off from oil from Persian Gulf countries, bid up oil prices, sending them above $100/barrel when Iran said the Straits of Hormuz were closed. Then the U.S. announced a blockade and would seize any ships carrying Iranian oil. Bereft of any source of income, the IRGC will quickly run out of money and no longer be able to pay its members or the Basij. Then what?
Oil prices will fluctuate as markets adjust. Prices at the pump will affect domestic and international politics around the world.
The kabuki dance of negotiating with a split Iranian government will continue. What will become, no one knows, but rest assured that Trump and Netanyahu have not put the hammer away.
What Will the World Look Like in 2027
For the sake of discussion, let’s assume the following. Assumption one: there is a new regime in Iran determined by the Iranian people that ended its nuclear weapons program, manufacturing of ballistic missiles, support of terrorism, and recognized the right of the State of Israel to exist. This will end the assistance the IRGC provides to the Shi’a militias trying to control Iraq, Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, and other terrorist organizations.
Assumption two: the Cuban economy collapses, and the leadership flees leading to a government determined by the Cuban people that welcomes private investment and personal and economic freedom.
Assumption three: the Russian Army’s spring and summer offensive doesn’t achieve Putin’s political or military goals. What it does succeed in doing is killing more Russian soldiers. Little, if any, additional territory has been gained.
For Xi Jinping, the world of 2027 is suddenly a scary place. The PRC bought most of its oil from Iran, which, thanks to sanctions, was well below market price. It was also a large purchaser of Venezuelan crude. Now, the PRC will have to buy oil at market prices, which could be a blow to its economy.
The question is from whom? Of the countries with the most reserves, the top 10 are (in order): Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Canada, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Russia, the U.S., and Libya. All but Libya and Russia could be considered in the U.S. orbit.
Given that the shipment of PRC-manufactured weapons, technology, and missile components to Iran did not play well in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Oman, and Kuwait. The Chinese have some fences to mend.
The PRC has additional problems that could threaten the regime's hegemony over its people. Corruption is rampant. It has built far more apartments than it needs, thousands of inefficient factories are kept running via government handouts, and it does not have the governmental institutions and mechanisms to deal with financial crises like those in the top ten economies of the world.
The PRC is heavily dependent on exports, and unless the government subsidizes the increase in oil prices, its factories must either absorb the higher costs or raise prices. Either will stress a weak economy.
Threatening to invade Taiwan has already been put on the back burner. Recently, Xi said the PRC will not attack Taiwan in 2027.
Any military or cyber-attack on Taiwan risks the PRC’s oil supply, most of which comes via ship, making it subject to interdiction, which would cripple its economy and ability to fight a war. Any attack on Taiwan risks sanctions that cut the PRC off from Western financial markets. If either or both happened, it would be catastrophic and could cause the regime to fail in its primary purpose – staying in power.
The PRC has, by its own admission, been spending about 4% of its GDP on defense. Most believe the real number is much higher, but in any case, if his military takes a close look at what it can glean from Epic Fury, it should scare them because the Russian and PRC supplied high-end air defense systems were eviscerated by the IDF and the U.S. They now need upgrading and replacement.
Suddenly, in the new world of 2027, Putin’s Russia is even more isolated. His friends in Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran are gone. The value Putin’s Russia provides to its alliance with the PRC is sinking because he is the junior partner saddled with a war he can no longer win or afford.
Worse, whatever foreign military sales either the PRC or Russia can generate will go to countries that already operate their weapons and whose leaders now realize they bought from the wrong supplier. Their problem is that they are stuck with them due to low-interest loans, training, and logistics. Despite the loans, the PRC’s and Russia’s influence on their policy decisions will shrink.
All this brings us back to the U.S. economy and the new National Defense Strategy. It clearly shifts the focus of U.S. efforts to protect the homeland because the Trump Administration understands that the very core of U.S. power is a strong, healthy U.S. economy, which enables us to afford both guns and butter. Given the investment that has begun to pour into the U.S. due to the president’s efforts, once the temporary shocks from the Iranian conflicts are over, the U.S. economy will continue to grow at a healthy rate for years to come.
Bottom line, for the U.S., the future is bright. For our potential adversaries, such as Russia and the PRC, strong storm clouds are on the horizon as they try to compete economically with the U.S. In 2027, the gap between the U.S. and Russia and the PRC will continue to grow as the U.S. becomes stronger, while Russia and the PRC will level off and may even become weaker.
Marc Liebman is a retired Navy Captain and Naval Aviator and a Vietnam and Desert Shield/Storm combat veteran. He is an award-winning author of 19 historical novels who writes and speaks on American history and foreign affairs.
