In recent months, Iranian drone and missile attacks have pushed U.S. and allied aircrews to operate at the edge of their range and survivability. The next crisis, whether in the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, or over Taiwan, will demand fighters that can fly farther, stay on station longer, and power more advanced defenses than today’s engines allow.
We have already seen how quickly these threats can escalate. In March 2025, Lt. Col William “Skate” Parks, commander of the 480th Fighter Squadron, narrowly survived a deadly salvo of enemy surface-to-air missiles during an undisclosed operation in the Middle East. He successfully deployed defensive countermeasures and skillfully maneuvered his F-16 through violent threat reactions. Parks’ heroic efforts have been rare over the last three decades due to the United States’ dominance in the air domain. In the years ahead, these harrowing scenarios will become far more common, and success in defeating these future threats will rely heavily on the engine powering the aircraft.
Countering enemy air defense threats involves many significant factors, but a combat aircraft’s power plant is by far the most critical. An engine is the central component of jet aircraft, and America needs to ensure that developing next generation systems are at the top of the development and procurement list. Unfortunately, the United States is rapidly running out of time to field future propulsion systems for fighter aircraft and related systems.
So which adversaries pose the greatest threat? The United States has many enemies across the globe, but there is one primary threat: China. Unlike Iran, China can challenge U.S. forces across vast distances with dense, layered defenses. China is committed to seriously weakening or destroying America’s power and influence in the world. To achieve its objective, China will likely attempt to assert control over strategic areas such as Taiwan, or even over allies such as Japan or the Philippines. Any of these scenarios would require the U.S. and its allies to operate over vast distances and within highly advanced air, surface-to-air, and naval threat rings. Many of the China’s modern systems pose a significant challenge to even the most capable U.S. combat aircraft. Combine this with their ongoing efforts to produce their own indigenous propulsion advancements , and the scale of this threat becomes crystal clear. Developing a next generation engine is essential.
Weapons provide the destructive effects to drive mission success, but it is the propulsion system that gets the aircraft to the fight and enables it to stay in the fight. Pilots and operators can have the best weapons and tactics imaginable, but if they never make it to the battle - or have to leave prematurely - the weapons are mostly useless. In short, developing and deploying a successful propulsion system requires huge investment, major risks, and comes with multiple areas of potential vulnerability for defense companies. It’s time for the Department of War (DoW) to accelerate solutions to this challenge.
The solution to rapidly advancing propulsion design is dependent upon funding, incentives, and structural changes to defense procurement. Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP) is an adaptive cycle jet engine that can shift in flight between fuel efficient cruise and high thrust performance, extending combat radius, increasing payload options, and providing the extra cooling needed for advanced sensors and weapons on platforms like the future Next Generation Air Dominance fighter.
Even after Congress passed the FY26 defense budget with roughly $330 million for NGAP research and development, the program remains underfunded and at risk of falling behind operational needs. The Trump Administration’s latest desire to increase defense spending to $1.5 trillion is a great place to start. The DoW should consider allocating major additional investment in NGAP from any proposed increase.
In the end, however, accelerating this effort will rely on proper incentives and major structural changes. Incentives such as Share-In-Savings (SIS) contracts could help smaller companies contribute to propulsion development. Congress can also look at incentivizing U.S.-based plant or workforce expansions by providing grant funding to defense companies similar to the CHIPS act. Structural change is necessary, but it requires sustained commitment. Congress must commit to purchase more next generation propulsion systems and associated parts through multiple-year contracts intended to expand the industrial base.
Designs should also encourage dual-use components, so defense companies can produce at a higher scale, sell the technology more widely, and thus reduce development costs. Without these major structural changes, funding increases, and targeted incentives, future propulsion efforts may come too little, too late.
Weapons system technology continues to develop at a rapid pace, and the U.S. cannot afford to follow the normal rate of development for key capabilities like advanced propulsion. Successfully defeating potential Chinese acts of aggression will require major investment in critical technologies. Combat aircraft will play an essential role in countering new threats, and the U.S. must accelerate programs like NGAP to ensure its warriors are equipped with the tools to win.
Timothy Murphy is a Retired U.S. Air Force colonel, and a former national security affairs fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.
