Every election cycle, Washington convinces itself that this will be the moment voters finally come home. Republicans think frustrated Americans will sprint back to the GOP once Democrats take a stance that is too radical or progressive. Democrats are convinced suburban moderates will return the favor the moment Republicans nominate someone who tweets before thinking. They’re both wrong.

A growing share of voters is doing something far more interesting: walking away from both parties altogether. A growing body of evidence suggests that this isn’t a fluke or a phase. It may be the early signal of where American politics is headed next.

According to a new Gallup poll, independents have reached a high-water mark in the American body politic. Nearly half of voters (45%) identify as independent, roughly double the percentage of Americans who say they are Democrats or Republicans (27%) each. Even higher proportions of Gen Z and millennial voters identify as independent, suggesting a momentous shift that will not only transform the future of our country but will likely define the elections this year. 

Most independents believe both parties have become too extreme. They want moderation. They want results. And, perhaps most damning of all, they want to stop being treated like an afterthought in a system designed almost entirely around partisan primaries and ideological base voters.

If this sounds familiar, that’s because it mirrors what voters have been saying in various forms for years. What’s different now is the scale. Across the country, independents aren’t just a swing group anymore. They are the electorate.

That matters, especially heading into the next round of midterm elections.

Colorado offers a useful case study because independents there can already vote in party primaries. A new poll from Let Colorado Vote found that independents make up about 50% of voters in the state, and they are deeply skeptical of both major parties. More than eight in 10 independents in the Centennial State say they identify as such specifically because they reject the other options. As Kent Thiry, founder of Let Colorado Vote and co-chair of the non-partisan Unite America election reform effort, recently put it, once voters are no longer forced to “pick a team” just to participate, many choose not to affiliate at all. That doesn’t make them disengaged. If anything, it makes them more demanding.

Independent voters care about the cost of living, housing, taxes, and government spending. In other words, all the stuff that actually affects daily life. They are less interested in partisan food fights and more interested in whether anyone in power can manage the basics without lighting the room on fire.

From a right-of-center perspective, there’s both opportunity and warning here.

The opportunity is obvious. Independents are not clamoring for a progressive revolution. They are not asking for bigger cultural crusades or more ideological purity tests. Many of their concerns align naturally with center-right priorities: affordability, fiscal responsibility, economic growth, and a government that works competently.

The warning is just as clear. Republicans can’t assume these voters will come back just because they’re unhappy with the Democratic Party. Disillusionment cuts both ways. Independents want less theatrics and more governing. Candidates who conflate outrage with leadership may win primaries, but they’ll lose the room eventually.

Democrats face their own reckoning. Independents see the party as having moved too far left on economic and cultural issues. That perception may not be fair in every case, but in politics, perception tends to vote before reality does.

What makes this moment interesting is that independents aren’t asking for a third-party savior riding in on a white horse. They’re asking the existing parties to grow up. Move toward the center. They’re saying to politicians: If you want our votes, then earn them. Stop assuming we’ll fall in line. Stop dismissing us as flaky or unreliable. Meet us where we are.

As independents continue to grow and start deciding elections outright, both parties will face the same choice. Keep doubling down on purity tests and grievances, or adjust to a world where persuasion matters again.

This trend doesn’t promise some neat centrist revival. Politics is messier than that. But it does send a pretty clear signal: Ignore independents at your own peril.

At a moment when more voters are turning away from the extremes, the party that figures out how to speak to the middle may find that moderation isn’t a liability after all. It might be the most disruptive move left in American politics.