Arms control like international law treats all signatories as having equal rights and obligations. But in reality, things don’t work out that way and there lies the rub.

In 1961, Fred Ikle who would become the head of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA) at the U.S. Department of State under Presidents Nixon and Ford, wrote when you find a violation of arms control deals what do you do? There are usually no penalties laid out in arms control deals, or the international law made pursuant to arms deals.

This is particular true for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT.

North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya were eventually all signatories to the 1969 agreement. They all to varying degrees trashed the treaty.  

North Korea conned their way through seven American administrations and talks for the past 35 years and now are thought to have an arsenal of some 50 nuclear warheads. 

Iraq’s nuclear reactor was bombed by the Israeli Air Force in 1981. In 1991 following the liberation of Kuwait, inspections found the Saddam Hussein regime was only six months away from building a nuclear warhead. It was Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait that set in motion the discovery of a very advanced nuclear program which the IAEA missed entirely.

By 2003 the invasion of Iraq, seeking regime change, found only a very minor nuclear program. And absent stockpiles of chemical weapons previously used against its own population but noticeably transferred to Syria, regime change or the use of military force to enforce the NPT lost all support, as the new conventional wisdom was that regime change was deemed both unnecessary and against international law, not to be tried.

Libya’s centrifuges were intercepted on the high seas, and the BBC China was boarded by the USA and Italian navy. Confronting Khaddaffi with the evidence of centrifuges from the Khan nuclear network in Pakistan manufactured in Malaysia and on the way to Tripoli, the Libyans surrendered. The government invited the USA to come and take away the entire nuclear program limited as it was.

But only after seeing Saddam Hussein dragged from his spider hole by the USA Marines. Khaddafi told USA officials he wanted none of the “Saddam treatment” and indeed the USA government obliged. The U.S. secured the WMD Libyan junk under a newly created Proliferation Security Initiative. And enforced the NPT the easy way.

Syria got the bomb treatment with its North Korea built reactor blown away in 2007, again by the Israelis. Syria didn’t try to rush to rebuild its nuclear program or put it underground and now no longer is a partner with the Iranian terrorists. For now. 

And as for Iran, for whatever reason successive USA administrations bought into the let’s talk paradigm with the mullahs whom James Woolsey correctly described as genocidal maniacs.

First Iran was found to violate the provisions of the NPT. Then an advanced protocol was put into place which the mullahs also violated. Apart from sanctions there’s was no punishment of the Iran regime.

Then came the JCPOA—the joint comprehensive plan of action--- which was the third try at a framework to curtail Iran’s ability to build nuclear bombs. To get the deal, Iran was given a hundred billion in previously escrowed oil revenue and again given the right to enrich. By both Bush NSC adviser Hadley and Obama Secretary of State Kerry.

Now the Obama administration dreamed of balancing Saudi Sunni terrorists against Iranian Shia terrorists, and assuming such violence could be eventually cured with the adoption of a Palestinian state. And forgetting Iran’s IRGC was an ally of Al Qaeda and the 9-11 terrorists and directed the plot itself.

The 2015 JCPOA not only gave Iran a right to enrich but to do so with more advanced enrichment technology (a wink). All the restrictions would go away within 10-15 years, (another wink), leaving Iran just a short pathway to nuclear weapons as the Israelis and many Americans warned. So bad was the deal that the administration refused to submit it to the senate as a treaty. But instead of refusing to honor the deal the Senate (winked) and instead offered to review the Iranian compliance with the deal on a regular basis. 

Here the IAEA winked too. The deal required Iran to come clean about its previous military related nuclear work (repeatedly revealed especially the IMAD plan). Although there was no doubt Iran was seeking nuclear weapons, American intel folks-- embarrassed at missing this previous Iranian work-- announced in 2007 that Iran had either paused or stopped further work around 2003. Another wink.

And since then, some intel folks have held fast to the old assumption (another wink) the Iranian nuclear weapons program was stopped.

Despite Iran never telling IAEA officials as required by the JCPOA exactly what and when militarily related nuclear work had been done.  

Fast forward to 2021. The terror group Houthis were taken off the terrorist list. Maximum sanctions on Iran were ended. Tens of billions of escrowed oil money was sent to Iran. The insurance of snap back sanctions was allowed to expire. 

Iran refuses to abide by even the weak provisions of the JCPOA. IAEA inspectors repeatedly tell the world Iran is enriching to the 60% level, far beyond legal limits. 

Iran’s terror attacks continue to go on, with relatively little response by the U.S., to date. Since 1979 in 46 years of war against the United States, Jack Keane says Iran has killed 2000 Americans.

Now only after the massive Hamas attacks of October 2023 against Israel and dozens of Iranian attacks on U.S. assets in the Middle East, did things change. With the arrival of a new USA administration, and the resumption of sanctions.

With new evidence from the IAEA that Iran was secretly adding to its enrichment did Israel and the USA act. Enough was enough. After multiple attacks against the USA over 46 years, the traditional feeble USA responses (reflagging the Kuwait tankers being an exception) were over. In concert, Israel and the U.S. wiped out much of the Iranian conventional and nuclear capabilities. The USA had decided no more winking. The Iranian mullahs no longer would enjoy sanctuary. 

Here the diplomacy advocates forever took umbrage. How dare the USA strike Iran military targets, it’s against the constitution. Congress didn’t approve. (Was it when the USA previously launched hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles against Libya or Iraq?)!

It got worse. 

The media decided the attacks were worthless as the mullahs had moved all the stuff including thousands of centrifuges and nearly half a ton of enriched fuel [none of which was for a bomb mind you!] 

Within only a few hours after the attack, the media concluded the American Air Force blew up empty buildings at best and the actual damage was minor because there was no crater after the attack, only a few holes in the ground.

 The media echoed the Iranian news reports which declared victory over the Israelis. Although WWIII was ready to break out because of the USA escalation. 

The facts soon caught up with the fairy tales. Tens of thousands of centrifuges and hundreds of pounds of enriched nuclear fuel were destroyed, despite Iranian trucks delivering sand and cement to plug up the ventilation shafts at Fordow. From what has been revealed, Fordow is now entombed. Let’s see the mullahs invite the NY Times into the supposed intact hall with centrifuges spinning. 

Could Iran have moved some material? Yes, anytime over the past decade as nonproliferation norms were repeatedly violated by Iran and not enforced through military action. Especially as bad guys who sign arms deals are not the same as the good guys, even though rules may be winked at. Yes, some U.S. allies have enriched to levels beyond that required to secure nuclear energy. 

But those folks don’t tell their people repeatedly “Death to America.” 

Peter R. Huessy is President of Geo-Strategic Analysis and Senior Fellow, National Institute for Deterrent Studies.