With the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, and for now the passing of the immediate danger of a nuclear conflict in South Asia, it would make sense to review the current world-wide nuclear state of affairs, especially as we honor those who sacrificed to protect our freedoms.
Much of the recent news has concentrated on the buildup of China’s nuclear forces and the Russian threats to use their nuclear forces against Ukraine and its allies. In addition, there have been reviews of North Korean missile tests and to what degree Iran has enriched uranium.
Although all serious developments, what is missing is an appreciation of what these four rogue states wish to do with their nuclear capability, whether numbering in advance centrifuges or dozens, hundreds, or thousands of nuclear warheads.
As has been often argued, numbers do matter in the nuclear balance. And thus, increasing numbers should be of growing concern to US security analysts.
But what is it that these states wish to do with these nuclear weapons? That’s where the rubber meets the road.
Three of the four are seeking to build “empires” of sorts while the fourth (North Korea) is a cooperative adjunct of the other three and undertakes whatever the three require.
President Putin has said he does not wish to re-create the Soviet Union. However, he apparently does want to re-create Russia as an empire, including and particularly incorporating Ukraine, the Baltics, Finland, and much of Eastern Europe. Russia is not only terrorizing Ukraine with drones and missiles but also engaging in sabotage and cyber war against nations in eastern Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.
China sees its rightful place in the international firmament as the world’s hegemon having a right under heaven to be the world’s premier power, even as Gordon Chang has cautioned, including dominion over outer space, the moon, and even Mars to achieve these goals. China has unleashed unrestricted warfare against the United States and its allies especially in the economic field and harms our social cohesion with what Xi calls a reverse opium war.
Iran is guided by its constitutional mandate to export its violent and terrorist Islamic doctrine through the use of multiple proxy, terror organizations, such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
After 56 years of such terror, Iran has caused the death of tens of thousands at a cost of multiple trillions of dollars. Contrary to popular belief, Iran’s terror campaigns are not going to be settled with the adoption of an unattainable but pretend two state solution between Israel and the Palestinians.
Iran seeks to build an Iranian condominium of allies in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria as well as Gaza and the West Bank with which to attack Israel and US interests in the Middle East. That Israel and the United States have seriously eroded this Iranian objective is good news, but the bad news remains that Iran fiercely holds onto this objective.
As long as the United States maintains military forces in the Republic of Korea, North Korea will probably not invade. However, North Korea‘s role is to pin down American resources in and around the Republic of Korea and Japan, in order to force the United states to provide resources in the area while Chinese created conflict is initiated elsewhere in the western Pacific, particularly with respect to Taiwan. You can be sure that the CCP will cleverly use North Korea as a proxy force to make it all the more difficult for the United States to defend its other allies in the region.
In addition, it is well known North Korea and Iran cooperate on missile and nuclear technology developments. North Korea and Russia cooperate similarly, as well as having the former provide troops for Russia’s war against Ukraine. In addition, North Korea serves as China’s agent whenever the CCP decides to create military mischief somewhere against American interests. And China buys Iran and Russia energy, helps Iran arm the Houthis piracy, and underwrites most of the North Korean economy.
These enemy forces in Europe, the Middle East and Asia confront the United States with serious military threats that cannot be thwarted by any US quick pivot to Asia. All our allies must pivot as well to all three geographic areas as the United States cannot deter these threats alone. That is why the administration as far back as 2017 pushed hard to get NATO to the 2%\GDP defense level and why now in 2025 that goal has rightly extended to 5%.
Europe has a GDP closing in on $20 trillion, with a population of 449 million, and a per capita income of $62,000. America’s Indo-Pacific allies number two billion people, with a GDP of $20 trillion and a per capita income reaching $34,000 in the Republic of Korea and Japan, $84,000 in Singapore and $10,000 in India.
All can contribute to freedom’s collective security which is precisely what the Administration is seeking, and putting America first is not putting the US alone. The US investment in defense is now approaching $1 trillion which is necessary to protect our security and deter bad “hombres.” When measured in what it would cost the United States to buy the military fielded by China and Russia, the US defense spending matches but does not exceed Moscow and Beijing. Given the United States has global obligations and security requirements, the resources applied to defense and security make sense but cannot be expected to meet all our collective and joint security needs. Real allies pull their own weight and do not depend solely on their friends for security.
Together America and her allies can pivot to the growing dangers. And if proceeding with the moral clarity of peace through strength, we can protect our security through deterrence and welcome indeed many future decades of peace and prosperity.
Peter R. Huessy is President of Geo-Strategic Analysis and Senior Fellow, National Institute for Deterrent Studies.
