Balikatan 2025—the largest Indo-Pacific exercise in years—sent a clear message: the United States is preparing for a major regional fight. With anti-ship missile strikes, island defense scenarios, and Japanese ground forces participating, it was the most complex iteration yet.
But exercises don’t win wars. Firepower does.
The Pentagon must face a hard truth: victory in the next conflict won’t come from flawless, gold-plated systems. It will come from what we can deploy quickly, at scale, and under fire.
Ukraine’s Lesson: Volume and Speed Win
Ukraine is showing the world how high-intensity warfare works in the 21st century. Their battlefield success hasn’t come from perfect weapons. It’s come from fielding what’s ready—drones, loitering munitions, commercial communications tools, and artillery.
Not because they’re the best. Because they’re available.
- Quantity wins. Mass drone strikes and heavy artillery have been more decisive than boutique precision systems.
- Speed wins more. The systems that arrived early—regardless of sophistication—changed the fight.
- Iteration matters. Ukraine’s ability to adapt and repurpose tech in real time has saved lives and shifted momentum.
While Western procurement measures in years, Ukraine adapts in weeks. That’s the pace of modern war.
INDOPACOM’s Edge Will Come Early—or Not at All
The Indo-Pacific is not Ukraine. Distances are longer. Logistics are harder. But the principle holds: the side that delivers effective firepower first will dominate the fight.
A Taiwan Strait war wouldn’t be measured in months. It would be decided in days. The U.S. won’t have time to surge exquisite assets across the Pacific—or build new ones mid-conflict.
If we’re still waiting for “perfect” systems to arrive, we’ll lose the initiative. And possibly the war.
Balikatan 2025 rehearsed island defense, long-range fires, and distributed C2. But behind the scenarios is a sobering question: do we have enough munitions, drones, and comms gear to fight for real?
Buy What We Can Use Now
Defense acquisition must evolve—fast. It’s not just about improving the process. It’s about buying the right things, at the right speed, and in the right quantity.
Ukraine has repurposed commercial drones and Starlink terminals into ISR, targeting, and command tools. They didn’t wait for five-year procurement cycles. They found what worked—and fielded it immediately.
INDOPACOM should do the same. Especially when the opening days of conflict may define the next decade of global stability.
Fix Procurement Before It’s Too Late
To prepare for a potential fight in the Indo-Pacific, we need to prioritize three things in acquisition: speed, scalability, and survivability. Here’s what that looks like:
- Fund what’s fieldable now. Buy off-the-shelf drones, comms, loitering munitions, and ISR tools that can deploy immediately.
- Build surge capacity before a crisis. Ukraine ran out of munitions fast. We can’t. Stockpile and pre-position across the Pacific now.
- Cut procurement timelines in half. If it takes five years to field, it won’t help in Taiwan. Fast-track authorities must become the norm.
- Empower those at the front. In Ukraine, warfighters influenced what got procured. We should embed their feedback into acquisition decisions.
This isn’t about throwing out the system—it’s about adjusting it to meet the timeline of modern conflict.
Balikatan’s Warning Shot
Exercises like Balikatan matter. They expose where we’re falling short. And if we can’t deliver munitions, drones, or comms gear quickly in peacetime, how will we do it under fire?
Ukraine is already showing the answer: get adaptable systems to the field, in volume, now.
The U.S. cannot afford to learn that lesson the hard way in INDOPACOM.
Perfection Is a Peacetime Luxury
The next war won’t be won by the most beautiful system. It’ll be won by the one that arrives first, hits hard, and keeps working.
We must shift from a procurement mindset built for long-term savings to one optimized for near-term victory.
As Balikatan winds down and strategic focus stays fixed on China, we should ask: are we building to win a contract—or to win a war?
In the Indo-Pacific, we may only get one chance to get it right.
Abby Denburg is the Vice President of Global Growth and Strategy at Insitu, She received her B.S. in Diplomatic History and Modern Middle Eastern Studies from the University of Pennsylvania and her M.S. in International Studies from Georgetown University.
