Eight years and what has felt like a lifetime of events since he first shocked the political world, Donald Trump has once again been elected president of the United States. And just like in 2016, Pennsylvania played a critical role in determining the election’s outcome.
With Trump’s victory came a red wave of Republican down-ballot victories in Pennsylvania, including for all three row offices, U.S. Senate, and multiple contested congressional, state Senate, and state House seats.
Now that the election has (largely) been decided, here are several key takeaways and what they mean for the commonwealth.
Economic Concerns and a “Change” Election
According to the CBS News exit poll, more than anything, voters wanted a candidate with the ability to lead and bring about change, and they overwhelmingly viewed Trump as that candidate.
Inflation and economic concerns drove voters’ thirst for change, and Trump once again dominated on these issues. Nearly 70% of voters said they are worse off financially than they were four years ago, and 75% said inflation is a factor. Trump won nearly 80% of these voters.
Trump’s perceived advantage on economic issues helped improve his margins with young, black, and independent voters – all core components of the Democratic coalition.
But it was his improvement with Hispanic voters – particularly Hispanic men – that arguably had the biggest impact. While Harris outran Trump among Hispanic voters nationally, her advantage shrunk by 13 points from Biden’s margin in 2020. Hispanic men drove this shift, as the economy was their top issue, and the majority said they were worse off financially than four years prior. Trump won Hispanic men by 10 points.
Trump’s improvement with Hispanic voters had a significant impact in Pennsylvania. Consider the shift in support from Democrats to Republicans in the Hispanic-majority cities of Allentown and Hazleton. According to NBC News, Democrats’ margin of victory in Allentown decreased from 41 to 23% from 2016 to 2024. Democrats won Hazleton by five points in 2016 but lost it to Republicans by 25 points this year. These gains buoyed Trump statewide while helping lead Republicans to victory over the Democratic members of Congress representing Allentown and Hazleton.
The question moving forward is whether Republicans can sustain this coalition when Trump is not on the ballot and their party is viewed as responsible for the country’s direction.
Lessons from 2017
How Republicans use control of the White House and Congress to address voters’ economic concerns, particularly over inflation, will help to answer this question.
The last time Trump was elected and Republicans controlled Washington – 2017-2018 – should serve as a warning. Back then, Republicans chose repealing and replacing Obamacare as their first major legislative initiative, rather than an issue with broader bipartisan support, like infrastructure or trade. To make matters worse, the GOP struggled to coalesce around a replacement plan. In May 2017, the House advanced a deeply unpopular bill that failed to pass the Republican-controlled Senate. The debacle called into question Republicans’ ability to govern and handed Democrats a potent political attack that fueled the 2018 “blue wave.”
Republicans would have been better off starting 2017 where they ended it – by utilizing a procedure called budget reconciliation to advance historic tax cut legislation, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, with simple majorities in Congress. That legislative achievement brought about immediate, tangible benefits for American workers. After Trump signed the bill into law, companies rushed to give employees bonuses, pay raises, and 401(k) match increases and the tax code changes helped spur widespread economic growth.
Fast forward, and many Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions are set to expire at the end of next year. Unsurprisingly, House Speaker Mike Johnson has already stated that using reconciliation to extend these provisions will be a top priority during the new administration’s first 100 days.
Pennsylvania Impact
But what does this all mean for Pennsylvania? As of this writing, it appears as though voters affirmed the status quo in Harrisburg. Republicans maintained control of the state Senate, while the outcome of a Cambria County-based state House seat will determine which party controls that chamber.
Regardless of that outcome, Harrisburg will be home to divided government. During the past two years, Republicans and Democrats have shown a willingness to work together, particularly on pro-growth economic policies like continuing the Corporate Net Income Tax phase down, improving the treatment of Net Operating Losses, and reforming permitting processes.
That should spell good news for Pennsylvanians hungry for continued bipartisan cooperation on policies that will materially improve their quality of life and bring down the cost of living.
