Since President Biden dropped his reelection bid and passed the baton to Kamala Harris, Republicans have been loudly optimistic about their chances against the vice president. Harris, they argue, is too liberal to win, was a lousy candidate in 2020, and will be again. In their view, Donald Trump remains a solid favorite.
Democrats will dispute negative characterizations of Harris, but irrespective of her abilities as a politician, the 2024 presidential race has probably returned to a toss-up. Perhaps Trump has an edge, but it is not an overwhelming one.
Consider the following:
- This isn’t a marathon campaign. It’s a sprint. Even if Harris has limitations on the stump, this isn’t your typical campaign. There are roughly 100 days until Election Day, and about five weeks until early voting starts. Her public appearances are likely limited until the convention, which will be well-scripted. Presumably, she’ll deliver a well-received acceptance speech in Chicago. From there, she heads into a post-convention tour, basking in what both sides assume will be with doting media coverage. And then, before you know it, voting starts. This matters because there will be fewer opportunities to catch the candidate off-balance or for her to wander off message. The goal is simply to be ruthlessly disciplined for 100 days.
- Kamala will have a bounce. Maybe a big one. Candidates typically get a “bounce” from their convention, and Harris’ bounce could be quite high – based, in part, on the suddenness of the process that brought us to this point and the freshness of her candidacy.
- Some of the Democrats’ problems were Biden-specific. Put most simply, Biden is 81 years old. Kamala Harris is 59. Democrats were understandably concerned that Biden wouldn’t be able to stay out of his own way while pressing the case against Trump. Instead, his rallies, press conferences, and interviews would inevitably focus on his gaffes, misstatements, and memory lapses. In short, Biden’s debate performance transformed the election irrevocably into a pure referendum on his presidency. Presumably, Harris will be more effective at focusing undecided voters’ minds on Trump’s shortcomings and creating more of a choice narrative.
- Some of the Republicans’ own arguments now work against them. The oldest major party presidential nominee in history is now…Donald J. Trump. The Biden-Trump match had been a choice between two well-known, elderly, deeply disliked incumbents. Whatever else one thinks of Harris as a politician, there is no reason to believe voters have Kamala-fatigue yet. The shortened time frame could help her.
- Changing the conversation: Millennials and their Gen-Z cohorts like to tease the elders with sarcastic “Okay, Boomer” jibes, but Trump’s birth president was Harry Truman, for goodness’ sake. Harris, born in the last year of the baby boom generation, is not only a more contemporary figure to the young voters Biden had been hemorrhaging, but the absence of a fixation on Biden’s health gives an opportunity for the narrative to shift things back toward Trump’s legal troubles (and away from Hunter Biden’s). Trump is likely to be sentenced in September, just as Hunter Biden’s California criminal cases come to trial. Whether or not Trump is sentenced to jail time, being convicted of felonies is new territory.
- Republicans can’t help themselves. “San Francisco liberal” has been a go-to GOP theme since Ronald Reagan was president, but calling Harris a “DEI pick,” as Tennessee Rep. Tim Burchett did this week, is another thing altogether. The jab may play well among the MAGA base, but anyone likely to be persuaded by such an attack is probably already voting Republican. It also plays directly into the hands of liberals poised to characterize attacks on Harris as racist and sexist. Concern trolling over the “anti-Democratic” nature of pushing Biden out (while demanding the cabinet invoke the 25thAmendment or that Biden resign) won’t help focus the conversation.
None of this means Harris will win. The vice president still has high negative ratings in the polls, is tied to a historically unpopular administration, and has struggled as an orator. The Republican base is still fired up from the Milwaukee convention and an assassination attempt against Trump. What’s changed is that Harris has an upside that post-debate Biden no longer possessed. This was a close race, even with a diminished Biden running, and it will likely finish up even closer.
