One of the interesting things about this already-exceedingly interesting election was that Donald Trump had a variety of good potential vice-presidential picks. Different options brought different things to the ticket: Doug Burgum looked the part and lent an air of seriousness to the ticket; Marco Rubio helped Trump with Hispanic voters; Greg Abbott emphasized Trump’s border security message while adding extensive executive experience; Tim Scott could help Trump double down with minority voters; Glenn Youngkin could put a purplish-blue state solidly into play. It was really an embarrassment of riches.
Instead, he picked J.D. Vance, a vice-presidential candidate who adds absolutely nothing to the ticket. In fact, he might make things more difficult for Trump.
To understand, let’s consider where the race stands right now:
- After the assassination attempt, any pro-Trump or Trump-curious voter is voting this November. There’s no need to reinforce a message here. Likewise, Christian conservatives are still mostly on board. As of today, the states that voted for Trump previously are pretty well nailed down for him. No one is really talking about Biden expanding the map into North Carolina or Florida right now.
- At the same time, Trump is building a lead in states that he lost in 2020, such as Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. States like New Hampshire and Virginia are increasingly on the table. In short, it was increasingly appearing that Trump might turn this election into a rout (at least by modern standards).
- Trump has some interesting inroads that he could build upon with various demographic groups. He has posted gains with black and Hispanic voters and could try to win back some of the suburbanites who deserted him in 2016 and 2020.
What, then, does Vance really add to the mix here? On the first part, absolutely nothing. Vance’s MAGA credentials are unimpeachable. From what I can tell online, the MAGA wing of the Republican Party is happy with the pick. But those voters were already voting and were voting for Trump. Vance has a good blue-collar populist story, which might have made for a good choice in the pre-2016 Republican Party. But again, the blue-collar swing voters of 2012 are base Republicans this election. This is the equivalent of Mitt Romney adding Paul Ryan to his ticket, as if he needed help consolidating the small businessman vote.
Nor does Vance really add anything on the second point. Kim Reynolds of Iowa might have helped to flip Minnesota or Wisconsin. Rubio probably would have put away Arizona and Nevada and potentially put New Mexico fully in play. Youngkin could have made Virginia fully into a swing state.
Instead, Vance hails from a state that’s already firmly in the Republican coalition. His performance in the state has been underwhelming, to say the least. Consider his run in 2022 compared to the rest of the statewide Republican ticket. Mike DeWine won the governorship by 25 percentage points. Dave Yost won the attorney general race by 20 points. Keith Faber (auditor) won by 18. Frank LaRose (secretary of state) won by 21. Robert Sprague (treasurer) won by 18. The GOP Supreme Court justices won by between 12 and 18 points.
J.D. Vance won his Senate seat by six points. It’s unclear, then, how he might help Trump carry Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan.
In fact, transitioning to point three, he might do the opposite. There’s not really much of a case that Vance helps Trump with non-white voters, though he may do no harm there.
Then there are the suburbanites, whose defections in 2020 cost Trump the presidential election (and whose defections in 2022 cost Republicans control of the Senate). These voters are particularly concentrated in states like Nevada and Arizona (where supermajorities of voters live in suburbs). Vance’s brand of big-spending conservatism matched with culture warrior bona fides really does nothing to allay their fears about Trump. It may actually push them further away.
In short, Trump could have opted for a big tent approach to the vice presidency. Instead, he opted for the pup tent. President Biden is unpopular enough that Trump may well still win this election. But Vance doesn’t make it any easier for the former president and is the rare vice presidential pick who might actually make it harder.
