As we near Thursday’s debate, Americans are fixated on whether Joe Biden will stumble on stage or Donald Trump will blow up in rage. Anything’s possible in a debate – especially when both candidates are high-wire acts.

Americans like debates. They offer direct, on-stage comparisons. Will something dramatic happen? Will somebody badly bungle a big issue? Will either candidate strike a decisive blow? These things usually don’t happen, but they can.

Endless pre-debate speculation on cable TV talk shows is largely a waste of time. Let’s face it: Most pundits are partisans, trying to lower expectations for their candidate, and none of them know any more about what will happen than you do.

Presidential debates are unpredictable. Often, candidates expected to win these encounters don’t. Richard Nixon in 1960 and Al Gore in 2000 were experienced debaters but, in the end, John Kennedy and George W. Bush more than held their own, and in the process gained the edge from the debates.

Debates are usually lost, not won. That was apparent in 1976, when President Gerald Ford intimated that Eastern Europe was not under Soviet domination. It was a mistake that played into the image of a unelected incumbent who wasn’t really prepared for the job. Jimmy Carter didn’t win that debate, Ford lost it and went on to lose the election. Self-inflicted injuries are the worst kind.

Former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg lost the two debates he joined during the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries. He’d already spent more a than a billion dollars and polls were showing him rapidly moving up. But his brittle, out-of-touch performances did him in.

When candidates enter televised face-offs, they need an overarching strategy. They should ask themselves, “What do I need to get out of this debate – and how do I do it?” Ideally, they should identify with the nation’s zeitgeist and speak to the public mood. Tactically, they should harden their own support base while appealing to cross-pressured voters who aren’t sure how they’ll vote.

Smart candidates will exploit debate opportunities to reassure voters about their own weaknesses; they’ll clarify issues, launch attacks and set traps for their opponents. Defense may win football games, but offense wins political debates.

In the closing days of the 1980 election, Ronald Reagan needed to show the personal capacity to lead the nation. He did it by drawing contrasts: strength versus weakness, change versus status quo. President Carter’s reelection chances were extinguished when Reagan asked the audience, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

Let’s remember that a candidate’s principal task is not to win the debate, but to win the election. This means debate messaging should be used to buttress overall themes.

As such, Biden will likely stress abortion, democracy, infrastructure, healthcare, low unemployment and the evils of Trump’s presumed pal, Vladimir Putin. Biden will tie Trump to MAGA extremists and to the conservative majority on the Supreme Court. He’ll say something about the former president’s criminal troubles.

Biden should ask voters: Since a felony conviction can disqualify someone from serving in the U.S. military, shouldn’t it disqualify someone from serving as commander in chief?

Trump will likely stress inflation and the border. He’ll relate Biden’s mishandling of America’s exit from Afghanistan to Biden’s handling of current wars in Gaza and Ukraine. He’ll attack the incumbent for “weaponizing” the Justice Department. Trump will link Biden to the most left-wing elements of the Democratic Party and raise the specter of Kamala Harris becoming president.

Trump should ask the audience: Do you really want four more years of high prices, open borders and weak leadership?

There is growing buzz that a bad night for Biden, and a quick drop in the polls, could convince him to withdraw. Top Democrats, of course, insist that won’t happen.

Trump’s risk is less what he says and more how he acts. Will he seem unhinged, overbearing, or out of control? Biden’s risk is also less what he says, and more how he looks saying it. Will he seem frail, disoriented, or too old?

As Rocky Balboa said, “It’s not about how hard you can hit, it’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward.”