Israel is on the brink of having to fight Iranian-backed terrorists on a second front, in Lebanon. In the last six months, more than 100,000 civilians on both sides of the border have been displaced from their homes by Hezbollah terror attacks and Israeli retaliation operations. The border is a powder keg thanks to years of gross negligence by the international community in allowing Hezbollah to ignore its demand to disarm in southern Lebanon. With diplomacy failing to produce results, President Biden is the only leader able to stop the march toward the guns of August, and he must act now.
In 2006 war, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 1701, which effectively ended Hezbollah’s unprovoked war against Israel and demanded the total disarmament of any military groups in southern Lebanon and the deployment of the formal Lebanese army and UNIFIL peacekeeping forces in the area. Hezbollah, however, uses its overwhelming influence on the Lebanese government to prevent any attempt to implement the U.N.’s demands through the deployment of the Lebanese army in the area. Thus, Israel’s security was left in the hands of UNIFIL peacekeepers who stood by and meekly observed as Hezbollah gradually rebuilt its military infrastructures, using Shia villages as a cover for its operations, and weapons flowed into the area.
Hezbollah was, therefore, well-positioned to begin launching daily attacks on Israel with Iranian-supplied rockets and missiles after Hamas terrorists attacked on October 7th. Since then, it has succeeded in practically paralyzing civilian life in northern Israel and caused considerable damage to civilian and military infrastructures. More than 80,000 Israelis have been internally displaced and remain so, indefinitely, while the IDF combats a terrorist threat that should have been removed long ago.
From the Israeli perspective, the cession of fire along the border and the return to the status quo ante are far from satisfying its security needs. Furthermore, Hezbollah's deadly use of anti-tank missiles against Israeli civilian and military infrastructures adjacent to the border over the past months has made it clear that a fully-armed Hezbollah must be pushed away from the border so that civilians will be out of those weapons' effective range. Just as critical to the Israelis is moving 3,000 of Hezbollah's highly trained Radwan commando forces away from its position along the border, as these forces pose an imminent threat to the safety of the villages and towns on the Israeli side.
While Israel presses the case for full implementation of Resolution 1701, it knows that UNIFIL will not fulfill its mandate at the eleventh hour, Hezbollah’s cost-benefit calculations are optimistic, and tens of thousands of Israeli civilians will not have their security guaranteed without a significant change on the ground. This dynamic leaves little hope for a diplomatic solution and press reports indicate that Israel is getting ready to carry out a limited ground assault into Lebanon to secure a 10 km wide security zone that will be empty from Hezbollah terrorists.
To avert this move, which will almost certainly lead to an all-out war, President Biden should direct his administration to dissuade, deter, and begin to disarm Hezbollah in southern Lebanon on its own.
This will require President Biden to order the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group back to the eastern Mediterranean, resupply Israel with emergency military aid that will replenish stockpiles of weapons used to combat Hamas, join Israel and champions of a strong Lebanon in Washington in demanding full implementation of Resolution 1701, and demonstrate an unwavering commitment to cutting off Iran’s ability to support Hezbollah with money and materiel through swift and strict sanctions enforcement. When Tehran has faced a cash crunch, Hezbollah has weakened. It is past time to abandon failed policies that have allowed Iran to bankroll its terror proxies and restore the squeeze that hit Hezbollah’s operations in 2019.
These steps can be directed by Washington and executed without buy-in from Europe, the U.N., or other multilateral groups – and it will change Hezbollah’s calculus in the short term. As this begins to restore calm, the U.S. should lead the effort in finding a creative solution to disarming Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. This may include building support for a NATO-led mission to prevent the outbreak of war and a humanitarian crisis, protect trade interests, and prevent the kind of migratory crisis that befell Europe at the start of the Syrian civil war.
The world is walking towards catastrophe. Israel cannot accept for much longer the continuation of the current situation in its northern parts. Without a major change in Western policy, Israel may be forced to take greater risks to change the facts on the ground. Communities in northern Israel must have their security guaranteed and the international community – to maintain whatever legitimacy it wants to retain – must be led by the U.S. to enforce its demands.
Dror Doron is a senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran and served for 17 years in Israel’s government. He was an analyst and then senior analyst in the Office of the Prime Minister of Israel, where he regularly briefed senior decision-makers on developments in the Middle East, particularly on Hezbollah.
