President Biden and Donald Trump’s sweeping Super Tuesday victories all but ensure the November rematch everyone’s been expecting – and dreading. And yet, this achingly predictable outcome is suffused with intriguing questions that will continue to offer high drama and psycho-drama.
Will Nikki Haley Endorse Trump? Haley never had a path to the nomination, but she definitely had plenty of well-heeled backers happy to fund the one Republican willing to attack Trump. After Tuesday’s thumping, she has finally thrown in the towel, though it’s not clear if she is listening to the people or whether the donors have abandoned her. She has reportedly not decided whether she will honor her pledge to the Republican National Committee to support the party’s ultimate candidate. In public statements, it is not her conclusion that Trump is “totally unhinged” that is giving her pause about backing him to be the leader of the free world, but his sensible effort to stack the RNC with his own people. On Sunday, displaying verbal gymnastics that would make Bill Clinton proud, she said, “The RNC [I pledged to] is now not the same RNC.”
If she believes this, it is a profound misreading of democracy. GOP voters selected Trump, not the RNC. Oh, the irony! As Democrats and Never-Trumpers issue bogus warnings about the grave threats Trump poses to democracy, our democratic system is the only reason he is poised to win the nomination. If candidates were still anointed by leaders in smoke-filled rooms, Trump is the last guy they would have picked. The Republican party is a bottom-up party in which voters – many of whom, horrors of horrors, do not possess college degrees – still reign.
This is in stark contrast to the Democratic Party. Since its early days as an instrument of Southern planters and Northern machines before giving way to the modern era’s progressive technocrats, the party has always been a top-down organization controlled by elites who claim to know what’s best for the people. That’s a major reason why Biden, despite low poll numbers and the belief among his own voters that he is too old to be an effective leader, faced no real primary challenge. He was the party’s pick.
Will Democrats Force Biden From the Race? While a Biden-Trump rematch seems assured, the race promises many monkey wrenches. Recognizing that their scorched earth attacks may be backfiring – Trump seems to be proving the adage “What does not kill me makes me stronger” – Democratic leaders spooked by Biden’s unpopularity are ramping up their panicked calls for him to step aside. But the pooh-bahs are facing strong resistance from the candidate. This is not surprising. They made a Faustian bargain in 2020 when they settled on Biden in large part because he had no core beliefs. The man who turned against bussing during the 1970s and supported 1994’s law and order crime bill because those were politically convenient stances was easily transformed into a crusader against alleged white supremacy and a champion of DEI and trans rights.
What they didn’t count on was Biden’s heroic self-image. His multiple plagiarism scandals reveal his rare ability to convince himself that other people’s ideas are really his own. Despite all evidence, he believes he is the smartest guy in the room. His insistence on repeating false stories – on everything from the deaths of his first wife and his son Beau, to his trips on Amtrak and his handling of classified documents – suggests he lives in a fantasy world where his tall tales are true. Democratic leaders are going to have a hard time convincing the president, who apparently believes he is leading the race, to stand down. The people love me, man.
How Do You Solve a Problem Like Kamala? Never say never in politics. Given Biden’s age – and Trump’s for that matter – health issues could arise. But Democrats are in an especially tough position because Harris is just as unpopular. If Biden were to step aside, it would be hard for the party of identity politics to bypass the first black vice president for a person of pallor like Gavin Newsom or Amy Klobuchar. In this context, Michelle Obama seemed the only viable option until she closed that door once more this week. Harris may be Biden’s ace in the hole.
Will Lawfare Finally Sink Trump? Trump’s position as the Republican nominee seems assured, but he faces even stronger headwinds than Biden. Some are rooted in the Democrats’ corruption of the legal system. Those 91 felony counts may be a hit job, but they will take time and money to defend. Trump has great energy, but it is not limitless. Those attacks have clearly boosted his campaign, but it is hard to predict what impact a criminal conviction, if it comes, might have on swing voters. The Supreme Court may have unanimously rejected Democrats’ effort to kick Trump off the ballot – again, they really don’t trust voters – but his opponents are sure to concoct other bogus lines of attack that Harvard law professors and New York Times scribeswill describe as serious threats until they are eventually debunked. Look for Russia collusion 9.0, 10.0, etc.
Will Trump Ultimately Sink Trump? But, as with Biden, Trump’s potential pitfalls are also rooted in his psychology. A born salesman, he talks in hyperbole – I had the largest crowd, the biggest tax cuts, the best economy – that keeps fact-checkers busy. Having made his fortune running a family business, he values loyalty above all else. When people he expects to serve fail to bend the knee, he lashes out. Hence, his mockery of Haley and his dismissal of every other Republican who opposes him as a RINO. Trump thrives on such conflict; he runs toward every fight. This is catnip for voters fed up with politics as usual, but it turns off plenty of others. It may also cost him a close race if, for example, Haley decides to run as a third-party candidate, offering a haven for disenchanted Republicans.
At bottom, Trump seems incapable of rising above himself. He has his moments, as when he recently told Fox News presenter Laura Ingraham “I don’t care about the revenge thing. … My revenge will be success.” But just when you think he’s figured out how he should act, he goes back to being his brawling self. Authenticity will only take you so far in politics. Be yourself, sure. But also be presidential.
These are our choices America, the ones we knew we’d get and long dreaded. The next eight months will remind no one of Periclean Athens, but they won’t be boring. Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
