As we gear up for a rough-and-tumble general election, once again the conventional wisdom taking hold is not so wise. Pundits are laser-focused on polls showing Donald Trump beating President Biden, progressive columnists calling on Biden to drop out because he is too old, and normally rational Democrats wetting the bed – nervous as hell that Biden is going to lose.
I wrote in this space two years ago about how the midterms were not going to be so bad for Democrats. I got an earful after that column. Then I got messages after the election telling me I was right.
So here we go again. But this is not a repeat of 2022. Joe Biden is on the ballot this time, and it is clear that Trump will be the Republican nominee. Biden is struggling in the polls and Trump has an immovable stranglehold on the MAGA wing of the GOP that is showing up for him in the primaries. The age issue seems to be dogging Biden more than Trump even though Trump is no spring chicken, and many of Biden’s successes have been because of the experience and wisdom that his age brings, not in spite of these things. So why do I feel we are in a much stronger position than the conventional wisdom would have us believe? Let’s look at eight reasons.
Dobbs Decision: Ever since Roe v. Wade was struck down, Democrats have been overperforming in most special elections, even ones in deep red states, including state legislatures, mayorships, and the 2022 midterm election. The latest show of Democratic strength is Congressman-elect Tom Suozzi’s victory in New York’s 3rd Congressional District. Suozzi won by an overwhelming 8-point margin. Since 2023, Democrats have overperformed district partisan match-ups in House and state legislative races by an average of seven percentage points.
This demonstrates the current strength of the Democratic Party, which will be critical for a Biden win in November. Democrats are organizing, and their grassroots infrastructure is robust and only getting stronger as we move to the general election. Although Biden was not technically on the ballot in any of these races, he will be in November. And this is exactly why he and Democrats are in a strong position.
Money: Recently, the Biden campaign announced a record haul of $132 million with a hefty amount of cash on hand. About 97% percent of this came from donors who gave $200 or less. This is a tremendous show of grassroots strength. Compare that to the Republican National Committee. Its chairwoman just stepped down because of the party’s fundraising woes, or maybe because she ran afoul of what Liz Cheney rightly calls the “cult of personality” in the Trump era. In any event, much of the money raised by the RNC is going to pay Trump’s legal fees which may be a great message point for the GOP primaries, but not so much in the general election.
Republican Leadership: From the moment Kevin McCarthy was elected House speaker, the Republicans have been in a tailspin and don’t know which way is up. They can’t lead, negotiate, compromise, or solve any issue of import to the American people. After McCarthy’s ouster, Speaker Mike Johnson can’t go to the bathroom without permission from Donald Trump. This dereliction of duty has enabled Biden and the Democrats to flip the script on the one issue Biden was weakest on – immigration. Ever since MAGA leaders betrayed voters and scuttled the very border security deal they had helped negotiate because Trump needed the issue for the election, they laid bare what is most important to them – not their obligation to the American people, but their subjugation by Donald Trump.
The Polls: Most independent, non-Republican-leaning polls have Biden and Trump in a tight race, and some show Biden slightly ahead. But the coverage is breathless when there is an outlier poll that shows Trump way ahead of Biden. The voters may be trying to send a message that they want younger leadership, but it’s now a binary choice and a long way until November. Joe Biden beat Donald Trump once. He can do it again.
The Vice Presidency: MAGA extremists love to use Vice President Kamala Harris as fodder to attack Biden. Easy to say before we see what horror show Trump will choose. Kamala Harris is actually a tremendous asset in mobilizing the Democratic coalition. Her focus on visiting college campuses, courting young voters of color and women voters, and calling out the extremist MAGA agenda has been a hugely powerful tool to keep Democrats and suburban women engaged on the existential threat a Trump presidency would be to our rights, liberties, and freedoms.
The MAGA Agenda: The latest demonstration that the MAGA movement is out of touch with American families is the Alabama Supreme Court designating an embryo as a person. Even Republicans see the flashing red warning signs of the political repercussions of this idiosyncratic and out-of-touch decision. As Alabama fertility clinics shut down their IVF operations, it is the death knell for families wanting to have children. Such extremism may have solidified a Biden victory. Republicans are rightfully in a panic over it. Americans have resoundingly rejected the MAGA extremist agenda in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, and will do so again in 2024.
Trump’s Weaknesses: Nikki Haley insists that Trump cannot beat Biden and that is why she has stayed in the race. And while Trump has beaten her unequivocally in every primary so far, there are glaring warning signs that up to 40% of voters in some states do not support Trump and will not vote for him in November. Those are voters who will vote for Biden or stay home. Either is a dangerous weakness for Trump.
The Contrast: The stark difference between the candidates will win the day for Democrats. Trump wants the economy to crash, he calls those jailed for attacking the U.S. Capitol “hostages,” and he will impose family separation and mass deportation camps. He wants a national abortion ban, will let Putin attack our NATO allies with no repercussions, believes he is above the law, and said himself that he wants to be a “dictator” on Day 1. He will impose another Muslim ban, will militarize the border, and will fight to keep himself in power even as he undermines the Constitution.
President Biden has created a record number of jobs, brought back manufacturing, lowered inflation, grown the economy to the strongest recovery of any nation, given millions of Americans healthcare, given seniors $35 insulin, and reduced rents and gas prices. Consumer confidence is at a three-year high, he has strengthened our democracy and will expand and protect our rights and freedoms. He has been a strong and effective president.
When it comes down to the decision of who should lead this country, Americans are smart and decent. Most will not vote for a fraudster with 91 criminal charges who is an adjudicated sex offender, an insurrectionist, a xenophobe and anti-immigrant, and a wanna-be dictator who is in it for self-aggrandizement and to stay out of prison. They will vote for a decent, empathetic, successful president who has shown he is committed to working, governing, and solving problems in a bipartisan fashion and putting the needs of the American people first.
None of this is to say that I think it will be an easy victory, nor a slam dunk. But I believe that President Biden is in a stronger position to win than Donald Trump, and the campaign understands the challenges ahead, the divided nature of this electorate, and the hard work they have to embark on to ensure victory in November.
I can’t wait to get messages on November 6.
