Donald Trump is keeping Joe Biden in the race. This is true on several levels; the one that matters most is numerical: Trump cannot pull away in the polls. Trump may end up winning, but he appears unable to put Biden away – now or for the remainder of the campaign. Biden, therefore, has reason to stay in and Democrats reasons to stick with him.
Almost half a century ago, President Lyndon Johnson decided not to seek reelection. Although he had won a landslide in 1964, four years later, he lacked the support to seek another term. Johnson was the last eligible incumbent to make that decision.
President Biden would seem likely incumbent to follow in Johnson’s footsteps. His 2020 victory was far from a landslide: by just over four percentage points in the popular vote and by just a few tens of thousands in the six states that gave him victory in the electoral vote. Four years later, he is deeply unpopular. According to a recent Gallup poll, just 38% of registered voters say he deserves reelection. The Real Clear Politics Average of national polling shows his overall job approval rating at just 40.2%. On important issues, it is lower still: on the economy, 39.7%; on crime, 39%; on foreign policy, 37%; on inflation, 36.8%; and on immigration, just 31.2%.
By all approval measures, Biden should be heading for the exit, not the campaign trail. So, why is he still running? Because in a head-to-head matchup with Trump, Biden is outperforming his presidential performance, trailing Trump by two points – even in a five-way contest, he trails 38-41. Despite his low approval ratings, Biden remains within striking distance of victory.
Biden is still in because he is running against Trump. It’s a legitimate question whether Trump can exceed his 2020 performance of winning 47% of the popular vote. Yes, Trump’s 2020 performance exceeded his tally in 2016 when he won with 45.9% of the popular vote. That increase must not be taken lightly: Trump is the only incumbent in over a century to lose reelection and increase his popular vote percentage.
However, today’s polling results against the currently unpopular Biden raise the question of whether Trump hit his ceiling in 2020. While Biden is unquestionably losing support, most is not going to Trump; instead, it is parked in the undecided column or with third-party candidates. In 2020, third-party candidates won 1.8% of the popular vote; in RCP’s averaging of 5-way race polls, 21% of respondents are not backing either Trump or Biden.
What the polls are saying to Biden is best cribbed from the movie Dumb and Dumber: “So, you’re telling me there’s a chance.”
Biden and his team are still in the race because Trump has not put him out of it. Trump’s recent remarks on NATO – inartful if you’re a supporter, deeply destabilizing to the world order if you’re not – are the kind of thing that keeps giving Biden an opening: a carrot on the end of a stick that keeps him running. Of course, the far bigger carrot – and the episode sure to be replayed ad infinitum between now and November will be Jan. 6, 2021. Not the insurrection Democrats claim, but a black eye to the MAGA movement and an example of the unforced errors that keep Trump’s margins down and Biden’s hopes up.
Trump perpetually preaches to his choir rather than to potential converts who could add support. If you doubt that, ask yourself where this race would be without Jan. 6. The answer: Over.
For Democrats, their rationale for sticking with Biden is simple. He’s still close. They can point to Biden’s incumbency, the court cases against Trump, the historical attrition of third-party candidates’ support, and Trump’s continued propensity to hurt himself as reasons for believing it will get closer.
Plus, their 2020 rationale still holds. They only need him to beat one person, and he is the only candidate proven to be able to do so. Hillary Clinton didn’t do it in 2016. Kamala Harris flamed out spectacularly in 2020 and has gone downhill from there. Michelle Obama? Do they dare trust their most important job to an untested candidate? Also, recall again 2020’s cavalcade of Democrat candidates: imagine the free-for-all if Biden stepped aside. Democrats don’t have a fairy godmother who can create peace and consensus from the certain chaos that would follow a Biden withdrawal.
So, Biden stays in, and Democrats stand pat because Trump has not pulled away. When Biden said, “If Trump wasn’t running, I’m not sure I’d be running,” he was prophetic. It may not have been what he meant, but it’s how 2024 is playing out.
