As Donald Trump tightens his grip on the Republican nomination – even with Nikki Haley still in the race – politicos are ready to play their favorite quadrennial parlor game: Who will be the vice-presidential nominee?
In 2016, Trump’s selection of Mike Pence as his running mate was a surprise; Pence had supported Ted Cruz in that year’s nomination contest. But Pence had two assets Trump wanted: congressional experience and the ability to lock in social conservatives. This odd couple worked pretty well, until Pence refused to overturn the 2020 electoral vote count, arousing Trump’s ire and stoking his obsession with absolute loyalty.
The number two slot is more important this year than ever. Given the advanced ages of Trump and President Biden, and the uncertainties of Trump’s legal troubles, Republicans need a capable vice-presidential nominee with solid credentials. This is especially true if they want to make Vice President Kamala Harris’ purported lack of suitability for the top job a central issue against the Democratic Party ticket.
Predicting running mates is tricky; nobody really knows the innermost feelings of presidential candidates, or whom they really respect and secretly distrust. Nevertheless, let’s look at Trump’s veep prospects, in no particular order:
Former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, 52. Strengths: National campaign experience, foreign policy know-how, former Trump administration official. Could help Trump where he’s lacking, with independents and college graduates. Weaknesses: Can Trump trust her? Would she walk the plank when needed? Has his “birdbrain” epithet made it a nonstarter (in both directions)? It’s hard to envision Haley as Trump’s running mate, especially while they’re beating up on one another.
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, 58. Strengths: Appealing personality, low negatives. Proved allegiance to Trump by endorsing him over former ally Haley, who appointed him senator. Trump wants to increase black voter support, thinks Scott could help. Weakness: Scott’s lackluster presidential campaign reinforced his image as a lightweight.
Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, 39. Strengths: Trump called her a “killer,” and may want a woman running mate not named Haley. A Harvard graduate, Stefanik’s questioning of university presidents led to celebrated resignations – and conservative acclaim. Chair of House Republican Caucus. Weaknesses: Wants job too badly. To please the former president, calls convicted Jan. 6 rioters “hostages” and supports expunging both Trump impeachments. But earlier on, Stefanik opposed key Trump policies on taxes, climate change, and the travel/immigration ban on Muslim countries. May be too young.
Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, 67. Strengths: Impressive accomplishments in business and government. Red-tape cutter; proficient on energy, education, cybersecurity issues. Trump respects billionaires, really likes those who support him. Weakness: Ran for president and didn’t scratch the surface of Republican voters’ collective consciousness.
Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, 39. Strengths: New face. Former U.S. Marine, author of best-selling book “Hillbilly Elegy.” Yale law graduate, venture capitalist. Communicates appealing brand of populist conservativism. Called the “voice of the Rust Belt.” Weaknesses: Only one year of Senate experience under his belt. A “never-Trump guy” in 2016, but changed his tune when he ran for office and needed Trump’s support, which he got. Like Stefanik, not yet 40.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, 57. Strengths: Won important gubernatorial victory in blue state. Sensible, genuine conservative. Presidential timber in his own right. Weakness: Lost last year’s effort to turn Virginia’s state legislature red. Also has scant political experience. Taller than Trump.
Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, 46. Strengths: Combat veteran, U.S. Army captain, won Bronze Star. Serious conservative, House and Senate experience, two Harvard degrees. Weakness: Opposed overturning 2020 electoral vote count – perhaps a fatal flaw in Trump World?
Gov. Ron DeSantis, 45, and Sen. Marco Rubio, 52. Each has an obstacle to being on the ticket. For starters, they live in Florida, as does Trump – and the Constitution prohibits electors of a state from awarding electoral votes to both presidential and vice-presidential candidates who are legal residents of the same state. In addition to this roadblock, which could only be overcome if one of the ticket mates would change their legal residence, DeSantis really wouldn’t add anything to Trump’s ticket. Rubio might excite Hispanic voters – and he endorsed Trump over DeSantis – but do Republicans want to make it easy for the Democrats to reprise the childish “small hands” talk of 2016? Likewise, the damage done by the Florida governor’s catastrophic presidential campaign is too soon and too raw.
Others that have been mentioned: Former presidential contender Vivek Ramaswamy of Ohio, 38; Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota, 52; Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa, 54; Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa, 64; Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas, 41; Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas, 66; and Kari Lake of Arizona, 54, who is busy running for the Senate.
This list could change a hundred times. It’s just the beginning.
