The 2024 election may look to many like a hot mess, but the country is strong and wise enough to withstand another Trump or Biden term.

Today, with the Iowa caucuses, the presidential primary season officially begins. Iowa has a history of upsetting political apple carts, but if the polls are to be believed, an upset seems unlikely this time. Both national and Iowa GOP surveys show Donald Trump with a seemingly insurmountable lead (of 51% and 33%, respectively) over rivals. Meanwhile, President Biden and the DNC have stripped Iowa and New Hampshire of their traditional roles as the first states in the Democratic Party nominating process so the president can begin his march toward another term in the much friendlier terrain of South Carolina, where he turned around his floundering 2020 campaign. 

This doesn’t mean a Trump-Biden rematch is certain. A number of factors from Biden’s age to Trump’s many indictments could force either candidate out. Also, while a Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis upset in the early primary states is unlikely, it’s not impossible. And a younger GOP nominee not named Trump could increase the pressure on Biden to step aside and allow a fresher face to carry the torch for Democrats in 2024. 

But as things stand, the most likely outcome involves the former president facing off against the current president, a choice that, as poll after poll shows, most Americans don’t want. The prospect has already produced much wailing and gnashing of teeth among the pundit class. Yet there is cause for hope that not only will American democracy survive another unpopular presidency and more political chaos, but the country will emerge in a stronger and more resilient place.

This is true despite the fact that after a shambolic first term, Trump refused to accept his defeat in the 2020 election, leading to a series of what I’ll diplomatically call irregularities aimed at changing the result and culminating in the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol. Meanwhile, Biden ran for the presidency promising to unite the country and return our politics to a better, more stable and normal place. He has done neither. 

So, why the optimism?  

First, while partisans on both sides talk about dictatorial and criminal behavior on the part of Trump and Biden and others in their orbit, America’s institutions remain strong enough to keep our democracy secure. 

Recall that the Jan. 6 riot delayed but did not stop Congress from certifying the election results, leading to the peaceful transfer of power. Likewise, a number of Biden’s unauthorized efforts, most notably to forgive student loans, were overturned in the courts. Institutions from the courts to civil society to even the press have helped control the more damaging instincts and behavior of both men. Indeed, our founders designed our republican system to prevent overreach, and so far, it has largely worked.

But a more important cause for hope is what my mother used to call “horse sense” – in this case, the horse sense of the American people. Yes, Trump’s and Biden’s grip on their parties mean that, despite what most people say they want, we may soon be faced with a choice between two deeply unpopular candidates. But history shows us that the electorate has a tendency to eventually correct its mistakes. Following the ineffective tenures of Franklin Pierce and James Buchanan, the American people elected Abraham Lincoln. The post-Watergate malaise of the Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter years was followed by the popular two-term presidency of Ronald Reagan.

Predicting the future is generally a fool’s errand, but I feel confident that the soundness of our fundamental political and civil institutions will largely insulate us over the long term, and that the common sense and intelligence of the American people will soon produce a political course correction that takes us in a more stable direction.