The United States is facing a prolonged political crisis, the culmination of which would be a rematch between two presidential candidates whom a vast majority of Americans would prefer not even seek office in 2024.
With fewer than half of Democrats and only one-quarter of Americans wanting to see President Biden run for another term, and just 35% supporting another Donald Trump run, it’s clear that the wide middle ground of Americans desires alternatives to these two men.
Despite Biden’s disastrous management of the economy, the U.S.-Mexico border, and the Afghanistan withdrawal, he still leads Trump in mock matchups nationally and in key states. Trump polls behind him in Pennsylvania and Arizona, must-win states for any Republican presidential contender. Trump’s presence at the top of the Republican ticket is about as favorable as nuclear waste with independent, suburban, and female voters.
A repeat match-up between Biden and Trump in 2024 would be, if not a full crisis for our country, a significant sign of decline. Still, voters may find themselves trapped between two unlikable and unpalatable political figures yet again. This would mark a crucial moment of stasis in our nation’s history.
It’s not good for America. Many voters I talk to – even solid Democrats and Republicans – cringe at the prospect of a Biden-Trump rematch. Having both at the top of their party’s tickets would be another signal of what conservative writer Ross Douthat labeled “The Decadent Society”: a culture of petty fights and political stalemates masking a “deeper reality … of drift, repetition, and dead ends.” This is a culture stuck in a constant feedback loop – while the deeper problems leading to our decline go unaddressed.
The prospect of a newcomer on either major party ticket would be a breakthrough against malaise.
On the Democratic side, certain politicians and their teams have flirted with becoming Biden’s heir – namely Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris, along with JB Pritzker (at least in his dreams) – but nobody serious will be challenging the president in the upcoming Democratic primary. Barring a serious health issue, Biden will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2024.
While the Democrats are nearly guaranteed to put forward their malaise candidate, Republicans still have a primary race in flux and a realistic choice between two front-runners: Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
DeSantis, prior to his formal announcement for president, ranked second – albeit a distant second – in support among GOP primary voters. After announcing, he reaped a fundraising windfall. DeSantis can boast of a compelling record of accomplishments, including a dizzying pace of legislation in the latest Florida legislative session, and an ability to win by huge margins in a formerly purple state. This combination could appeal both to a GOP electorate and a national one. He also regularly beats Biden in polling in Arizona and Pennsylvania, and even in light-blue states like Wisconsin and Nevada.
DeSantis has lost a portion of primary support, however, since the former president was indicted in New York on what Republicans view as politically motivated charges. And Trump’s campaign team has turned its fire on him while praising GOP longshots like Vivek Ramaswamy for “doing so well” and having “good things to say about ‘President Trump.’” A shift away from DeSantis shows a race that is clearly in flux – and support could easily swing back. Polling in the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina will be revealing in the months ahead.
What is clear in both DeSantis’ share of the primary vote and Trump’s behavior toward him is that DeSantis is the top alternative contender for the Republican presidential nomination.
It won’t be an easy path. DeSantis will have to fight off other non-Trump Republicans, including Nikki Haley and Tim Scott, both of whom hail from the key early-voting state of South Carolina. He will also need to make nice with prominent potential endorsers, namely any sitting member of Congress who has not endorsed Trump so far, of whom there are many. But DeSantis, who has turned Florida into a Republican stronghold with hard work and leaning into the fight, could be the man to make it happen.
DeSantis will also need to show up on a debate stage and look strong against Trump, whose reputation as a man-eater has tarnished other would-be opponents from Florida, notably former governor Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio in 2016.
Most crucially, he will have to disqualify Trump without alienating a crucial block of GOP voters who view the former president favorably or at least sympathetically, but who are not diehards. These Republican voters largely like Trump, and they hate the vitriol directed at him, but they may be ready to turn the page on the former president’s grievance mentality and look to a nominee who is focused on growth.
DeSantis’ path to a major party’s presidential nomination is far more plausible than that of any other candidate not named Trump or Biden. The American people – including Democrats – should hope that he gets there.
