As we reach Labor Day Weekend, traditionally considered the unofficial start of the general election season, it’s worth looking at where the generic ballot stands and whether it is predictive.
Much attention has focused on how and why Democrats have closed the gap on the GOP in the generic congressional ballot in the past few weeks. As one can see in the accompanying graph, Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot in mid-November 2021, and maintained a lead of between two and four percentage points through most of the summer.
Since late July, however, support for Democrats has increased, pulling them into an effective tie with the GOP.
What has caused the upward movement for Democrats? Lower gasoline prices, the Dobbs decision, passage of the “Inflation Reduction Act,” and Biden’s executive order forgiving student loan debts have all contributed to bringing many Democrats home, which is also evident in the corresponding rise in President Biden’s job approval rating over the same time period.
The question of the moment is this: Can whatever momentum Democrats currently have be sustained through November 8? To make an educated guess at an answer, let’s look at recent history.
The 2010 midterms were a huge Republican year, a result foreshadowed by GOP wins in the 2009 Virginia and New Jersey governor’s race and, even more notably, Scott Brown’s stunning 5-point upset of Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate special election on January 18, 2010.
Looking at the RCP Average for the 2010 Generic Congressional Vote, we see a similar pattern to 2022: Democrats held a consistent lead in the year before the election, only to see that lead evaporate as the year ended. Republicans maintained a small lead through the late spring until Democrats managed to pull even in the early summer.
Nonetheless, in 2010 it became evident well before Labor Day that the electorate was breaking to the GOP. Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot on July 6, and by Labor Day weekend they had a clear 5-point lead.
On Election Day the red wave crashed ashore, with the GOP recording a 6.8% win over Democrats in the national vote, leading to a pickup of six Senate seats and 63 House seats, giving them control of the lower chamber.
Now look at 2014 – another good Republican year. Again, leading into election year the same pattern was evident: Democrats’ consistent lead in 2013, which ballooned to more than 6 points in October, disappeared at the end of the year. Most of 2014 saw the two parties running basically even: neither side had a lead greater than 2.5% through the entire primary season; for much of that time it was less than a single point.
Democrats entered Labor Day weekend in 2014 with a 1.4% lead in the generic congressional ballot. And then things changed. Ten days after Labor Day, the GOP had shot to almost a four-point lead over the Democrats – a lead they would never relinquish. On Election Day, the GOP scored a 5.7% national vote win over the Democrats, translating to a pickup of nine Senate seats and 13 House seats.
Now let’s look at 2018, a good year for the Democrats. They scored a pickup of 41 seats in the House, winning the national vote by 8.4% – despite losing two Senate seats. As you can see, however, the generic ballot followed a completely different pattern:
Democrats held a consistent lead from the end of 2017 all the way to Election Day in 2018. Republicans never got closer than 3.5%.
The same was true with the Democrats’ other recent midterm triumph in 2006. They began 2005 with a 9.5% lead in the generic ballot and maintained that large lead for two solid years until Election Day. Democrats won the national vote by 7.9%, netting five Senate seats, 31 House seats, and gaining control of both chambers of Congress.
Keep a close eye on the Generic Congressional Ballot over the next few week. This year appears to be following the pattern from previous good Republican years – especially 2014. Perhaps Democrats will be able to defy recent trends, but if the pattern holds, expect Republicans to gain in the Generic Congressional Ballot post-Labor Day.
